Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Read about our approach to external linking. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. 03:30. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Still, the state's worth watching. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Their concerns are real. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. 9. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. First, what are bellwether counties? Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. But both are worth watching. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Yes, another Hillsborough! This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. i.e. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, What results did you discover? They simply vote on merit. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Their hopes are real. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. The divisions were everywhere. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. 4. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in.
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